Treadmill Speed to Pace Chart

Find the number on the console down the left edge. The two pace columns are what a training plan means by pace, the 5K and 10K columns are how long the belt would take to cover those distances at that setting, and the last column is the distance in a 30-minute session.

Three settings are worth memorising. 10 km/h is exactly 6:00/km and covers 5 km in 30 minutes. 12 km/h is 5:00/km. And 8 km/h — the point most people cross from a fast walk to a jog — is 7:30/km, which is a 37:30 5K. If your console is in miles per hour, 6.0 mph is 9.66 km/h and exactly a 10-minute mile.

Incline is the most under-used dial on a treadmill and the most misunderstood. The tables below use the ACSM metabolic equations, which predict oxygen uptake from belt speed and grade, converted to METs. They are the equations exercise physiologists use for treadmill testing, and they separate walking from running because the two gaits have different energy costs.

The walking table contains the useful surprise. At 6 km/h on the flat, walking costs 3.9 METs. Put the belt at 10 percent and the same speed costs 9.0 METs — an increase of 133 percent for no change in speed at all. Incline is a far more effective lever than speed for anyone who cannot or does not want to run.

Because both are expressed in METs, the two can be set against each other directly. The table below takes a walking speed and grade, works out its metabolic cost, then inverts the ACSM running equation to find the flat running speed that costs the same.

This is the argument for incline walking in one table: a brisk walk at a steep grade matches the energy cost of a respectable running pace, with none of the impact loading. It is why the format has become popular with people returning from injury or carrying extra weight.

The equivalence has limits worth stating plainly. Equal oxygen cost is not equal training effect — running develops running-specific economy and tendon stiffness that uphill walking does not, so the two are not interchangeable if you are training for a race. And energy cost says nothing about joint loading, which is the point in the other direction: uphill walking gets you the cardiovascular work at a fraction of the impact.

• Holding the handrails invalidates everything. The ACSM equations assume you are carrying your own body weight. Gripping the rails on a steep incline can cut the actual cost substantially, while the console keeps reporting the full figure.
• Belts drift out of calibration. A well-used gym treadmill can be several percent off its displayed speed, especially under a heavier runner. If your indoor and outdoor paces disagree consistently, this is the usual reason.
• The 1 percent convention has a narrow basis. The often-repeated advice to set 1 percent incline to match outdoor running comes from a study that found the correction applies at speeds above roughly 12 km/h. At slower speeds the flat belt is already a reasonable match, and the added grade simply makes the session harder.
• Console calorie counts are gross, not net. They include the calories you would have burned resting, and most machines do not know your body composition. Treat the number as a rough band, and see the MET values chart for how much error the underlying method carries.

To turn any of these speeds into a finish time for a race distance, the pace calculator works from any two of pace, distance, and time, and the running pace chart covers race predictions in more depth, including why holding one pace across a marathon does not work.